Possible scenarios for Iran once war with US, Israel ends
March 5, 2026 at 07:42 AM
By Deutsche WelleNobody can say how the US-Israeli war on Iran will play out, let alone what will happen to Iran once hostilities end. Experts shared their takes on where Iran's government could go from here.
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Nobody can say how the US-Israeli war on Iran will play out, let alone what will happen to Iran once hostilities end Nobody can say how the US-Israeli war on Iran will play out, let alone what will happen to Iran once hostilities end. Experts shared their takes on wh Monitor developments in Possible for further updates.
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Nobody can say how the US-Israeli war on Iran will play out, let alone what will happen to Iran once
Nobody can say how the US-Israeli war on Iran will play out, let alone what will happen to Iran once hostilities end. Experts shared their takes on where Iran's government could go from here.
ConflictsIranPossible scenarios for Iran once war with US, Israel endsDavid Ehl03/05/2026March 5, 2026Nobody can say how the US-Israeli war on Iran will play out, let alone what will happen to Iran once hostilities end. Experts shared their takes on where Iran's government could go from here.https://p.dw.com/p/59orFThe Freedom Tower in Tehran shrouded in smoke clouds following air strikesImage: Davoud Ghahrdar/ISNA/dpa/picture allianceAdvertisementWhen the US and Israel began pounding Iran on February 28, people in Tehran stood on their roofs and cheered. This reaction from Iranians was not one that one would expect, given the war'scontroversial nature under international law and how the Iranian government regards the US and Israel as bitter enemies. Many Iranians are, however, willing to accept civilian deaths and destruction if it means toppling their despised theocratic regime. While the US made various contradictory statements over its war objective, regime change remains a possibility. US President Donald Trump appealed directly to Iranians who had staged mass anti-government protests in January, telling them to stand up. " When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations." Mere hours later, news emerged that Iran's spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, had been killed in a strike. Yet even with Khamenei gone, Iran's regime is still fully functional with veteran politician Ali Larijani at the helm. Whether the US and Israel will achieve their war aims and what Iran's future will hold remains unclear. The Venezuelan scenario Trump may be satisfied to see a Khamenei successor appointed who is more in line with US interests. The US president told The New York Times he has "three very good options" in mind, though he did not provide any names. Changing a country's top leadership while keeping its political system intact is exactly how Trump's operation in Venezuela played out. US special forces removed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in early January and then struck a political deal with his deputy, Delcy Rodriguez. Delcy Rodriguez was installed as Venezuela's interim president shortly after the US capture of leader Nicolas MaduroImage: Miraflores Palace/REUTERS Indeed, Trump told The New York Times, "What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect, the perfect scenario [for Iran]." Cornelius Adebahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations told German broadcaster ARD that Iran may install a new leadership built on the strength of Iran's Revolutionary Guards and seek to establish a new relationship with the US. "It's the same scenario as in Venezuela," Adebahr said. "You swap out the top leadership and far fewer changes than people had hoped for." It is not clear, however, if the US actually favors such a scenario. Trump, after all, also told The New York Times that Iranians could rise up to bring about a comprehensive political change. What will become of Iran's leadership? Peyman Asadzade of Harvard's Kennedy School believes the war could bring down Iran's regime. Yet he thinks a different scenario is feasible, too. It would be defined by "continuity with recalibration" in that Iran's Assembly of Experts selects a pragmatic successor to Khamenei and then directs its attention to domestic priorities like "economic reconstruction, stabilization, and governance reforms, while foreign policy shifts toward de-escalation." This trajectory is not unlike the Venezuela scenario outlined above. "A pragmatic course for whoever emerges in Tehran after this war would be to pursue de-escalation with the United States, in the hope that it could unlock economic relief and begin to ease the day-to-day cost pressures facing millions of Iranians," said Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert with RUSI, a British security think tank. "That, in turn, could open a path toward a more stable and much-needed period of recovery." Unpacking Iran's 'existential crisis' in war with US, IsraelTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Asadzade can also envision a third scenario, whereby the Iranian regime rallies around an even harder-line leader and entrenches its conservative ideology. This is a trajectory Julian Borger, a correspondent for The Guardian, fears. "After repeated attacks, the surviving leaders conclude that a bomb is the only guarantee of survival. The opposition is quashed with ever-growing brutality as the survivor regime becomes increasingly similar to North Korea: isolated, paranoid and nuclear-armed," he wrote in a recent analysis. Could Iran's opposition come into power? Two weeks before the start of the war, some 250,000 Iranians and other demonstrators took to the streets of Munich to cheer on Reza Pahlavi, whose late father, the Iranian Shah, was ousted following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Pa
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