Iran’s succession: Who will rise out of the ashes of Trump’s war?

Iran’s exiled ex-crown prince is barely “plan D” for the future of Iran, experts tell chief international correspondent Bel Trew NewsWorldMiddle EastanalysisIran’s succession: Who will rise out of the ashes of Trump’s war?Iran’s exiled ex-crown prince is barely ‘plan D’ for the future of Iran, experts tell chief international correspondent Bel TrewThursday 05 March 2026 13:18 GMTBookmarkCommentsGo to commentsBookmark popoverRemoved from bookmarksClose popoverClose‘Doing very well’: Trump rates US 15 out of 10 on war with IranYour support helps us to tell the storyRead moreSupport NowFrom reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.Your support makes all the difference.Read moreIt is not an exaggeration to say the last few days in the Middle East have marked a paradigm shift for the region and, frankly, the world.The US and Israel killing the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei – once unthinkable – became just another of a slew of decapitations in their unprecedented joint operation on Iran, which has killed hundreds in the country, including children. The offensive has hollowed out the brutal military leadership and its affiliates across the region.Even the building that houses Iran’s Assembly of Experts, which right now is attempting to choose a leader to replace Khamenei, was reportedly flattened by an air attack in the last few days. Khamenei’s second and most beloved son, Mojtaba, 56, is the favourite in the running as successor. But what difference would it make if Israel follows through with its threat to assassinate whoever is picked to take over?open image in galleryA plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran (AFP/Getty)Instead, Donald Trump has been quick to urge Iranians, who have nowhere to hide under this unprecedented bombardment and are still recovering from a bloody state crackdown on protests, to leverage what he called the only chance “in generations” to “take over your government”. Yet despite the gravity of a call like that, the US and Israel’s timeline for their operation in Iran, their actual endgame and, crucially, their vision of “the day after”, remain unclear. Or possibly, as some claim, it is almost deliberately non-existent.Eagerly waiting in the wings is Reza Pahlavi, 65, the exiled son of the last Shah, deposed during the 1979 uprising that ushered in the Islamic Republic. A year later, Pahlavi declared himself Shah in a bizarre coronation-in-exile in the Egyptian capital, but has since distanced himself from the notion of a return to Iran’s Peacock Throne.Based in the US, he has instead tried to position himself as the imminent transitional leader of a new post-theocratic Iran, releasing stirring statements promising Iranians he would return soon. He is receiving some support inside and outside Iran. open image in galleryMojtaba Khamenei (centre), the son of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the expected successor (Middle East Images)But as retired American-Lebanese Colonel Abbas Dahouk, who served as a military adviser to the State Department and twice as US defence attaché to Saudi Arabia, puts it, for the US the Shah is not even a Plan B.“He is maybe Plan D,” he adds. “The US remembers we tried that, bringing people from the outside like [Ahmed] Chalabi and [Nour al] Maliki in Iraq – that doesn’t work,” he said. “We’re still paying the price today.”Inside Iran, some of the only armed opposition forces within the country, like the Kurds, vehemently oppose the return of the monarchy, which they accuse of marginalising and repressing Iran’s minorities when in power.Armed Kurdish separatists have told me meanwhile they are plans for a possible offensive against the regime in the coming days, with some reports even suggesting this might be supported by the CIA.A former prince-in-exile is unlikely to stand much of a chance if he cannot win over the few armed factions who are on the ground taking action.This leads to another point. There is no way for the US to completely win the war by remote airstrikes alone, Colonel Dahouk says.“We have the war machine to win the battlefield, but the missing piece is the ideological war. How do we sell ourselves versus Khamenei, and the Islamic regime mentality?“Hearts and minds — we’re not good at it. We tried it in Afghanistan for 20 year